The Cleveland Indians are off to a surprisingly hot start and leading the American League Central two weeks into the 2011 season.

While the Tribe is giving long suffering Cleveland sports fan a little bit of season-opening joy, do not get carried away and start thinking about an October Surprise. Keep the season outlook cautiously pessimistic.

These days “Progressive” Field looks like an aging ghost town with rolling tumbleweed and the haunted whistling of the Old West, or a suitable fixture within decrepit downtown Cleveland.

The reality is the chasm of retainable talent between the haves and have-nots of MLB’s markets widens, and the Indians are on the losing side of the canyon. Compliant owner Larry Dolan is clearly content to let his Sportstime Ohio enterprise reap his actual profits off penny-pinching couch potatoes, while nothing else about the franchise is properly tended to.

Currebt Indian Jack Hannahan when he was a Toledo Mud Hen. (Photo by Art Weber courtesy of Toledo Mud Hens.

It is the new age of the Mistake by the Lake. Get used to it. Pittsburgh and Kansas City fans have been on the short end on an annual basis for decades and Cleveland offers too similar a market for temporary talent breeding for the big boys New York, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Detroit and Texas.

Just take an honest look at the player personnel.

Mostly unproven Fausto Carmona and his career 4.49 ERA over five full stints remains the “ace” of the pitching staff.  He looks solid early on, but Carmona has never been as consistent as he was with former Indian CC Sabathia “protecting” him.

Grady Sizemore, the only remaining “star," is flirting harder with career injuries than he once did with Grady’s Ladies. After going four straight years playing at least 157 games and putting up delicious leadoff stats Sizemore has played a total of 139 games over the last two full seasons and began this one on the DL, expected to return at the end of April, He will never again be the same exciting centerfielder he previously was. Hopefully manager Manny Acta understands that the speedy leadoff days are over for Sizemore and plugs him somewhere into the middle of the lineup upon his return.

Travis Hafner is off to a hot start. Great. Remember this is a 162-game affair and not an 11-game one. Hafner has a whopping 36 homers since Boston finished rallying against the Tribe in the 2007 ALCS.

The youth is fairly exciting. Sophomore catcher Carlos Santana returns from scary knee surgery and hopefully can fulfill his bill as the next Victor Martinez. There is no questioning his ability. But a young catcher with knee issues? It remains to be seen.

First baseman Matt LaPorta- one of those surefire cornerstone pieces of the future Shapiro brought in from Milwaukee in the now-ancient Sabathia trade- well, let’s just say the kid has underachieved according to expectations. No skin off Dolan’s nose. It’s trouble for a middle-lineup piece who isn’t delivering the power and production that was supposed to replace the elements once provided by Hafner and Martinez.

Shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is back at full strength and looks great defensively again, but his early explosion at the plate is false. His truly modest career numbers batting in the two-hole make him an average MLB player at best.

The front office got ultra crazy on the free agent market last winter, landing vaunted, pricey middle infield veterans Orlando Cabrera and Adam Everett. They make for lovely baseball-card filler over the course of a major league season at this point. Thank you, Antonelli and Dolan.

Aged, mediocre outfielder Austin Kearns is currently platooning with an unexciting Travis Buck as OF backups, when they’re not starting in left. Good for them.

Shin Soo-Choo is a solid three-hitter who keeps the order alive, and he is the surest hitter the Tribe has. His talent would be so much better served batting fifth, sixth or second on one of those all-star big city clubs. So, expect a Choo trade mid-season to one of them, so Cleveland can land some exciting minor league prospects.

Michael Brantley has yet to be the phenom he was projected to be, but he still gets the nod in center until Sizemore returns. He’ll move to left and hopefully stay in the leadoff spot with his small-ball and base stealing ability.

Jack Hannahan at third? That name sound familiar? Yep, Hannahan is the former Toledo Mud Hens starter. An early season darling in Cuyahoga County, in reality he’s just keeping the hot corner warm until Lonnie Chisenhall finally gets the call up from Columbus. Hannahan’s career major league BA is a painful .225 over 300 at-bats via five different short-term seasons in The Show.

Behind Carmona, Carlos Carrasco is the most exciting starting arm the Tribe has and he should overtake Carmona as the “ace” at some point. Veterans Justin Masterson, Josh Tomlin and Mitch Talbot are all crap-shoots, although Masterson has a nasty sinker and Tomlin looks as though he may be one of those unexpected reliable starting arms.

Chris Perez is a bonafide closer, a welcome commodity to fully erase the god-forsaken memories left behind by Joe “Give-it-up” Borowski. Rafael Perez appears to have much of his old late-inning form back to stabilize the back end of the bullpen and Tony Sipp is fulfilling his projected relief destiny so far. Chad Durbin is a stable vet with a solid relief resume. Joe Smith should add further veteran anchorage in the pen. Hopefully the likes of Justin Germano, Vinnie Pestano and Frank Herrmann can find plenty of confidence working with the core of the experienced bullpen, which should really be the Tribe’s strength all year.

For the long haul, however, while Acta is a very talented manager, the Indians simply won’t have enough to stay afloat offensively in the AL. Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota all have too much talent, pitching, hitting, managerial experience and overall experience for a relatively new manager and a hodge-podge roster of young-and-old to keep pace with.

The Tribe, despite its hot start, ends up the year no better than fourth in the AL Central. And that’s wishful thinking- not cautious pessimism.

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