Which comes first, consumer demand or jobs, jobs, jobs?
These midnight ponderings were running through my head one recent night when the heat index was 105 degrees and my scalp felt like a Bhut Jolokia pepper plant, which is the hottest pepper in the world registering in at 1,001,304 Scoville heat units:

Demand or jobs?
Jobs will fix the economy, some say. But, consumer demand creates jobs. So, should the feds throw resources at job creation or at increasing discretionary spending?

Let’s look at some numbers.
An estimated 156 million Americans work, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. About 14.1 million, or nine percent, don’t. The median wage is around $37,000. If we could cut unemployment to four percent, a historical happy zone, that would put to work 7.3 million people. If they made $37,000 each that would flood some $270.1 billion into the economy.

Trust me on the math and keep in mind these are estimates and this is a simplistic example.

Now, look at the 156 million working Americans, not the idle 14 million. According to a recent study by Kevin Lansing, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Americans, by necessity, are spending $175 less a month since the recession began in December 2007.

We spend less because housing values have plummeted restricting borrowing power, our 401-k’s have tanked and we’re skittish about the future. Add the fact that a family with two cars pays an estimated $100 a month more in gas than before the recession and you can see why we are squirreling away what little discretionary money we have.

So, let’s suppose that the government could find a way to replace that $175 a month for working people, what would that mean to the economy?

According to my math, 156 million times $175 a month equals $327.6 billion annually.

That’s a bigger bang and one reason why President Obama wants to know how speculators affect the price of oil in these times when supply and demand are constant. And, why he has a mortgage relief program—albeit one that isn’t working too well—and why Republicans want less taxes.

I’m not an economist, but I wonder why not rein in the speculators and take a smaller tax bite out of our paychecks? The uptick in consumer spending will create jobs.

The stealth industry
Good to see Governor John Kasich break with fellow Republicans and veto the Lake Erie water bill, which would have increased unregulated water withdrawals. Proponents said the bill would create jobs by allowing industry to withdraw up to five million gallons a day before seeking a permit. This would have allowed the largest water withdrawal of any Great Lakes state.

While proponents tout new jobs, who speaks for the stealth industries of tourism and recreation? These two sectors are dominated by small, independent businesses and part-time workers. However, according to a new analysis by Michigan Sea Grant at the University of Michigan, Great Lakes tourism and recreation account for more than 210,000 jobs. More than 4 million recreational vessels are registered in the region and boaters spend more than $16 billion on trips and equipment. In addition, 9.2 million anglers, 4.6 million hunters and 23.2 million bird watchers spend their discretionary income on our shores.

This industry is stable and diverse and because it is comprised of many small businesses it’s not likely that the loss of one firm—let’s say a firm like BAX Global—will result in the loss of 700 jobs in one swoop. That is, as long as water levels remain sufficient and our lakes are healthy.

Midlife man
The first words an old friend said to me on a recent stop into our office was, “How you doing old man?”

Old man?

Is that how others see me?

That’s not how I see myself, so when I surfed the web later in the week I stumbled across the definition of midlife. Psychology Today describes that period of life as the ages between 40 and 60. Having just turned 61, I momentarily slipped from midlife to oldlife without realizing it. Then, as fast as a mouse click, I stumbled onto lifegoestrong.com, which defines midlife as the ages 40-65 and, just like that, I’m in midlife again.

Lifegoesstrong.com is a network of sites (home, tech, family, style, play) brought to us by Proctor & Gamble and NBC Universal. The goal is to put a positive spin on aging, and, naturally, sell stuff.

Here are some things I learned on the site:
46 percent of us are confident about aging;

35 percent say that we are looking forward to using our acquired knowledge and wisdom;

57 percent are working on improving physical fitness;

67 percent are dieting for one of these reasons—to lose weight, lower cholesterol, reduce salt or reduce fat.

Our big concerns are loss of physical independence (45 percent) and loss of memory (44 percent). And, although it wasn’t mentioned in the survey, I would add loss of sleep.

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